ACC ALPINE GROUP

Raw sugar prices are trading at a new 11-year high, the white sugar prices hit a 10-year high in the previous month itself and the Indian sugar prices have been surging for the fourth straight month for the month of April.

The markets are witnessing lower sugar global exports as there is a weak supply because of the adverse weather. In terms of overall Asia, major producing countries are looking at lower production in the current season whether it is India, Thailand, Brazil, or Pakistan - the crop production has been on the lower side for all of these major countries.

The market is also looking at a lower crop estimate. It is the government's estimate at 33.5 million tonnes. The other institute's associations have brought their estimates for crops this time around to much lower than this current one.

Not just India but the Europe crop output also is expected to see a decline. Brazil is looking at a higher cane output this time around but they are likely to allocate it to ethanol more this time and that is what is supporting the prices.

For the Indian markets - this is as per the latest Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) report that came in on April 25, 2023 - the 2022-2023 crop estimate now stands at 32.8 million tonnes.

Last year, it was much higher at around 35 million tonnes. So from last year's comparison and the earlier estimates, the market is looking at much lower numbers.

Last year's estimate was around 35.76 million tonnes. The consumption this time around is expected anywhere between 27.5 million tonnes to 28 million tonne, which also is on the higher side as compared to last year.

This is going to be the first decline in perhaps the last couple of decades that has been seen. Mills started to shut down two months prior to the actual season. Out of the total number of around 532 mills, which are into crushing, nearly 75 percent of mills have already shut down two months prior to the whole season.

In terms of the total sugar production, Maharashtra is looking at a major decline of around 1.5 million tonne, Karnataka also has seen a decline in production by 0.3 million tonne - this has majorly brought the sugar production on the weaker side.

The tight supplies actually could start showing by the month of October, November which is when the festival season begins. The summer season demand also is expected to be on the stronger side and households, while they contribute to 33 percent of total sugar demand, it is about the bakeries, ice cream makers etc. where also the sugar demand is expected to be on the stronger side.

So the market believes that this is just the beginning. This is the season and even now if the sugar prices are running high, by the time it is end of summer and the beginning of winter, you will be looking at much higher sugar prices.

Vijay Banka, Dwarikesh Sugar in its interaction with CNBC-TV18 said FY23 realisations for the company were at Rs 3,450/Tonne. He expects sugar prices to remain around Rs 3,600-3,700/Tonne and inflationary pressures to continue.

By Manisha Gupta, 26 April 2023