ACC ALPINE GROUP

This month’s IGC (International Grains Council) grain market report was released yesterday. Overall, forecasted world total grains production for this marketing year saw a 300.0Kt cut from the previous month's figure. While down from earlier estimations, this remains a record high at 2,290.0Mt, a 3.0% increase from last season. On the contrary, output projections for the coming season (2022/23) were revised up, with global total grains supply 4.0Mt higher than predicted in the May report.

Wheat

Global wheat production estimates saw little change from last month’s report. However global consumption was revised down for both this season and next, by 500.0Kt an d 1.4Mt respectively, as high prices weaken demand. 

Interestingly, wheat production figures for Russia and Ukraine were unchanged and remain higher than those in the latest WASDE report. The USDA revised Russia’s 2022/23 production estimate up 1.0Mt to 81.0Mt. The IGC report has kept next seasons figure at 84.7Mt, sitting in between the USDA figure and the SovEcon figure of 89.2Mt.

Maize

Maize on the other hand saw considerable changes for next seasons production estimates mainly due to revisions for Ukraine. Projections in Ukraine were revised up by 6.5Mt to 25.1Mt for the 2022/23 season, due to a higher-than-expected acreage and putting prices under some pressure. This estimate matches the USDA figure in this month’s WASDE report.

An increase in demand in the EU saw consumption estimates on the continent increase by 2.0Mt for the 2022/23 season, making up a large proportion of the global demand increase.

Soyabeans

This season’s world soyabean production is estimated to have seen a 18.0Mt drop from 2020/21, at 351.0Mt. As a result, opening stocks going into the new season look to be considerably lower than normal estimated at 43.0Mt, down 21.2% year on year. If released it’s likely that prices will remain supported for now.  

Total global production of soyabeans for the next marketing year was revised up by 3.0Mt from last months projection, now at 390.0Mt. This is an 11.2% increase on the estimate for this season, however sits below the WASDE figure of 395.0Mt. 

Looking forward

To summarise, wheat estimates were relatively unchanged from last month’s report with uncertainty surrounding Russia and Ukraine’s production prospects. Ukraine’s maize production was revised up for next season with a higher acreage than previously expected, however the estimate still looks low compared to previous years. Soyabeans were also revised up with next seasons figures looking higher than the current.